Time series models for business and economic forecasting pdf
How to Choose the Right Forecasting TechniqueIn virtually every decision they make, executives today consider some kind of forecast. Sound predictions of demands and trends are no longer luxury items, but a necessity, if managers are to cope with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, price-cutting maneuvers of the competition, strikes, and large swings of the economy. Forecasting can help them […]. Forecasting can help them deal with these troubles; but it can help them more, the more they know about the general principles of forecasting, what it can and cannot do for them currently, and which techniques are suited to their needs of the moment. Here the authors try to explain the potential of forecasting to managers, focusing special attention on sales forecasting for products of Corning Glass Works as these have matured through the product life cycle.
Two Effective Algorithms for Time Series Forecasting
Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting
The Annals of Regional Science. The volume of retail sales is an important indicator of state economic activity and forms the base of the percentage sales tax. Accurate forecasting of the variable is of interest to fiscal authorities and private analysts as well. This paper compares the performance of two techniques in forecasting net taxable retail sales: the ARIMA time series model and a structural model which is representative of the econometric approach. Four measures of forecast accuracy are calculated and the relative merits of the techniques are discussed. The ARIMA model was found to perform better than the structural model during the evaluation period used in the analysis.