Financial forecasting methods and techniques pdf
Techniques and Methods of Business ForecastingPlanning for the future is one of the key aspects of organizational management and is critical to the success of all businesses, irrespective of their size. This technique is called forecasting, and it includes estimating important factors, such as sales volumes, expenses, investment and profit, that could influence outcomes for a business. Financial forecasters employ various methods to arrive at their estimates. There are two types of forecasting — qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative techniques are generally deployed where historical data is not available.
Forecasting Techniques: Trend and Seasonality-Corrected (Winter's Method)
Types of Financial Forecasting Methods
Everything you need to know about the techniques of business forecasting. Forecasting is an important component of Business Management. It is essentially a technique of anticipation and provides vital information relating to the future. It is the basis of all planning activities in an organisation. It involves collecting valuable information about past and present and estimating the future. Forecast is an estimate of what is expected to happen in some future period. The success of a business greatly depends upon the efficient forecasting and preparing for future events.
In virtually every decision they make, executives today consider some kind of forecast. Sound predictions of demands and trends are no longer luxury items, but a necessity, if managers are to cope with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, price-cutting maneuvers of the competition, strikes, and large swings of the economy. Forecasting can help them […]. Forecasting can help them deal with these troubles; but it can help them more, the more they know about the general principles of forecasting, what it can and cannot do for them currently, and which techniques are suited to their needs of the moment. Here the authors try to explain the potential of forecasting to managers, focusing special attention on sales forecasting for products of Corning Glass Works as these have matured through the product life cycle. Also included is a rundown of forecasting techniques. To handle the increasing variety and complexity of managerial forecasting problems, many forecasting techniques have been developed in recent years.
For example, forecasts help a business identify appropriate responses to changes in demand levels, price-cutting by the competition, economic ups and downs and more. To receive the greatest benefit from forecasts, leaders must understand the finer details of the different types of forecasting methods, recognize what a particular forecasting method type can and cannot do, and know what forecast type is best suited to a particular need. For this reason, the naive forecasting method is typically used to create a forecast to check the results of more sophisticated forecasting methods. Whereas personal opinions are the basis of qualitative forecasting methods, quantitative methods rely on past numerical data to predict the future. The Delphi method, informed opinions and the historical life-cycle analogy are qualitative forecasting methods. In turn, the simple exponential smoothing, multiplicative seasonal indexes, simple and weighted moving averages are quantitative forecasting methods. Regression analysis and autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs are causal forecasting methods that predict a variable using underlying factors.